Spread: Utah State (-3.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego State (100%) · San Diego State at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
San Diego State
6
San Diego State 100%
$3.6K
$0.29
55¢ → 55¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralSan Diego State at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on San Diego State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | San Diego Stateavg 55¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0.29 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
PL pltrkr111 | San Diego Stateavg 55¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | +$0 | 3% 18-523 (541) |
 VeryLucky888 | San Diego Stateavg 55¢ | $880.69 | $880.69 | +$0 | 52% 718-671 (1389) |
HI hi774c | San Diego Stateavg 55¢ | $407.07 | $407.07 | +$0 | 19% 121-526 (647) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | San Diego Stateavg 55¢ | $33.55 | $33.55 | +$0 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | San Diego Stateavg 55¢ | $21.93 | $21.93 | +$0 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
Invested
$1,279.8
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0.29
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
18-523 (541)
VeryLucky888Invested
$880.69
Value
$880.69
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
718-671 (1389)
Invested
$407.07
Value
$407.07
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
121-526 (647)
Invested
$33.55
Value
$33.55
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$21.93
Value
$21.93
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.