Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold San Diego State, while the market favors Utah State (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Utah State (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego State (60%) · San Diego State at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
San Diego State
5
San Diego State 60%
$1.7K
-$6.79
48.4¢ → 46¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSan Diego State at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Utah State 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on San Diego State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | San Diego Stateavg 48.5¢ | $700.69 | $664.32 | -$36.37 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
IC ic4cream | Utah Stateavg 52¢ | $609.96 | $633.42 | +$23.46 | 0% 1-438 (439) |
GA Gaditima | Utah Stateavg 50¢ | $201.42 | $217.6 | +$16.17 | 51% 62-60 (122) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | San Diego Stateavg 48¢ | $226.29 | $216.86 | -$9.43 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | San Diego Stateavg 48.7¢ | $11.41 | $10.78 | -$0.63 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$700.69
Value
$664.32
PnL
-$36.37
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$609.96
Value
$633.42
PnL
+$23.46
Record
0%
1-438 (439)
Invested
$201.42
Value
$217.6
PnL
+$16.17
Record
51%
62-60 (122)
Invested
$226.29
Value
$216.86
PnL
-$9.43
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Invested
$11.41
Value
$10.78
PnL
-$0.63
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.