Utah State vs. San Diego State

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Utah State (50%) · Utah State at 57¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Utah State57¢San Diego State43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah State

Consensus Traders

Utah State 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$174.08

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah State at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah State57%

San Diego State43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah State7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,813

Combined PnL-$17.16

San Diego State7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,374

Combined PnL+$191.24

Utah State — 50%San Diego State — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah State 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Utah Stateavg 58¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$15.33	50% 2696-2676 (5372)
GA gagarin59CTR	San Diego Stateavg 42¢	$989.42	$1.1K	+$94.23	42% 75-104 (179)
65 6512395314597884	Utah Stateavg 59¢	$259.47	$262.37	+$2.9	50% 3962-3959 (7921)
RN1CTR	San Diego Stateavg 33¢	$189.03	$246.08	+$57.05	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	San Diego Stateavg 40¢	$392.42	$197.81	+$7.12	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
└ San Diego State leg	San Diego Stateavg 40¢	$133.87	$135.54	+$6.59
└ Utah State leg	Utah Stateavg 59¢	$61.75	$62.27	+$0.52
TA takeormake	Utah Stateavg 61¢	$128.68	$128.28	-$0.4	57% 3595-2677 (6272)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	San Diego Stateavg 50¢	$105	$105	+$0	51% 994-962 (1956)
└ Utah State leg	Utah Stateavg 50¢	$52.5	$56.7	+$4.2
└ San Diego State leg	San Diego Stateavg 50¢	$52.5	$48.3	-$4.2
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Utah Stateavg 58.9¢	$139.74	$84.75	+$10.6	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
└ Utah State leg	Utah Stateavg 58.9¢	$61.85	$62.47	-$4.58
└ San Diego State leg	San Diego Stateavg 33¢	$18.15	$22.28	+$15.17
13 13897651CTR<$100	San Diego Stateavg 39¢	$64	$69.74	+$5.74	44% 1266-1632 (2898)
tradecraft<$100	Utah Stateavg 57.5¢	$57.5	$54	-$3.5	33% 427-868 (1295)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	San Diego Stateavg 33¢	$37.95	$52.9	+$14.95	49% 573-601 (1174)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	San Diego Stateavg 42.5¢	$42.5	$42.5	+$0	56% 4109-3207 (7316)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	San Diego Stateavg 28¢	$16.82	$27.63	+$10.81	32% 231-493 (724)
GH ghorrock<$100	Utah Stateavg 57.6¢	$9.49	$9.81	+$0.32	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	San Diego Stateavg 33.1¢	$35.42	$2.87	+$8.45	48% 326-352 (678)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Utah Stateavg 74¢	$3.7	$2.7	-$1	83% 882-182 (1064)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100	Utah Stateavg 58¢	$2.18	$2.03	-$0.15	59% 1142-789 (1931)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Utah State

Invested

$1,780.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$15.33

Record

50%

2696-2676 (5372)

gagarin59CTR

San Diego State

Invested

$989.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$94.23

Record

42%

75-104 (179)

6512395314597884

Utah State

Invested

$259.47

Value

$262.37

PnL

+$2.9

Record

50%

3962-3959 (7921)

RN1CTR

San Diego State

Invested

$189.03

Value

$246.08

PnL

+$57.05

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

38791873984189ARB<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$392.42

Value

$197.81

PnL

+$7.12

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

Both legs:

San Diego State$133.8740¢+$6.59

Utah State$61.7559¢+$0.52

takeormake

Utah State

Invested

$128.68

Value

$128.28

PnL

-$0.4

Record

57%

3595-2677 (6272)

NotJumpARB<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

Both legs:

Utah State$52.550¢+$4.2

San Diego State$52.550¢-$4.2

Pan9XARB<$100

Utah State

Invested

$139.74

Value

$84.75

PnL

+$10.6

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

Both legs:

Utah State$61.8558.9¢-$4.58

San Diego State$18.1533¢+$15.17

13897651CTR<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$64

Value

$69.74

PnL

+$5.74

Record

44%

1266-1632 (2898)

tradecraft<$100

Utah State

Invested

$57.5

Value

$54

PnL

-$3.5

Record

33%

427-868 (1295)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$37.95

Value

$52.9

PnL

+$14.95

Record

49%

573-601 (1174)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$42.5

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

4109-3207 (7316)

babybellsCTR<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$16.82

Value

$27.63

PnL

+$10.81

Record

32%

231-493 (724)

ghorrock<$100

Utah State

Invested

$9.49

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.32

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

San Diego State

Invested

$35.42

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$8.45

Record

48%

326-352 (678)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Utah State

Invested

$3.7

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$1

Record

83%

882-182 (1064)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319<$100

Utah State

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

1142-789 (1931)

Research grade

NeutralUtah State at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Utah State

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Utah State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUtah State 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.