Utah vs. Cincinnati: O/U 57.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 88¢ · $656 held · ended Oct 31

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$655.56

Combined PnL

-$24.15

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 88¢

+81% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$409.35

Total Shares844

Combined PnL-$10.43

Under3 traders

Total Value$246.21

Total Shares502

Combined PnL-$13.72

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDew	Overavg 49¢	$304.3	$301.2	-$9.31	53% 404-355 (759)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Underavg 52¢	$183.04	$168.96	-$14.08	47% 331-377 (708)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 48¢	$107.04	$108.16	-$1.11	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 51.4¢	$51.93	$52.02	+$1.1	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$25.97	$25.24	-$0.73	54% 2996-2576 (5572)

RollAwayTheDew

Over

Invested

$304.3

Value

$301.2

PnL

-$9.31

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Under

Invested

$183.04

Value

$168.96

PnL

-$14.08

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$107.04

Value

$108.16

PnL

-$1.11

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.93

Value

$52.02

PnL

+$1.1

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.97

Value

$25.24

PnL

-$0.73

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.