Utah vs. Cincinnati: O/U 55.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 91¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over91¢Under9¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 90.5¢

+71% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over91%

Under10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares4,720

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,983

Combined PnL+$99.17

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 53¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$1.0K	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 47¢	$942.45	$932.43	-$10.03	54% 4896-4121 (9017)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$488.08	$599.64	+$111.56	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 47.4¢	$71.1	$132.75	+$61.65	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
BA banepir<$100	Overavg 52¢	$86.32	$88.81	+$2.49	49% 449-465 (914)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47.8¢	$90.25	$87.89	-$2.36	58% 28788-21225 (50013)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$2,334.12

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$942.45

Value

$932.43

PnL

-$10.03

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$488.08

Value

$599.64

PnL

+$111.56

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$71.1

Value

$132.75

PnL

+$61.65

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

banepir<$100

Over

Invested

$86.32

Value

$88.81

PnL

+$2.49

Record

49%

449-465 (914)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90.25

Value

$87.89

PnL

-$2.36

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.