Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cincinnati, while the market favors Utah (96%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Utah (-7.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cincinnati (89%) · Cincinnati at 4.0¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 31

Utah96¢Cincinnati4¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cincinnati

Consensus Traders

Cincinnati 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.1K

Combined PnL

$238.4

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 4¢

-92% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Utah96%

Cincinnati4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cincinnati8 traders

Total Value$39.9K

Total Shares76,950

Combined PnL+$237.6

Utah1 trader

Total Value$65.31

Total Shares74

Combined PnL+$0.8

Cincinnati — 89%Utah — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
esportsbetter1CTR	Cincinnatiavg 52¢	$26.0K	$26.0K	+$0	47% 168-186 (354)
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR	Cincinnatiavg 51¢	$5.1K	$5.2K	+$100.05	48% 227-245 (472)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cincinnatiavg 50¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$123.72	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Cincinnatiavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$25	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
JO jole24CTR	Cincinnatiavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$30	44% 1021-1278 (2299)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Cincinnatiavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	54% 4896-4121 (9017)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Utahavg 47.5¢	$69.11	$70.56	+$0.98	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 47.5¢	$45.11	$45.6	+$0.02
└ Cincinnati leg	Cincinnatiavg 50¢	$24	$24.96	+$0.96
JU justaluckydude<$100	Utahavg 86.9¢	$64.51	$65.31	+$0.8	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 51.5¢	$10.3	$10.1	-$0.2	51% 1460-1410 (2870)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 32.5¢	$46.97	$5.99	-$40.97	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

esportsbetter1CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$26,000

Value

$26.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

168-186 (354)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$5,099.95

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$100.05

Record

48%

227-245 (472)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$3,093

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$123.72

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$25

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

jole24CTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$30

Record

44%

1021-1278 (2299)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Cincinnati

Invested

$1,352

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4896-4121 (9017)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Utah

Invested

$69.11

Value

$70.56

PnL

+$0.98

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Both legs:

Utah$45.1147.5¢+$0.02

Cincinnati$2450¢+$0.96

justaluckydude<$100

Utah

Invested

$64.51

Value

$65.31

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$46.97

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$40.97

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Utah 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cincinnati wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.3%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1790.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

1890.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.