Utah vs. Cincinnati

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (80%) · Utah at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Utah>99¢Cincinnati<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 80%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$65.17

Smart Money Entry

93.3¢ → 99.7¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Utah100%

Cincinnati0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,177

Combined PnL+$70.94

Cincinnati2 traders

Total Value$96.08

Total Shares1,154

Combined PnL-$5.77

Utah — 80%Cincinnati — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Utahavg 95.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$61.13	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Utahavg 97.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$17.68	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
Painfulvoid	Utahavg 73.5¢	$304.43	$314.64	+$10.21	63% 1757-1023 (2780)
JU justaluckydude	Utahavg 86¢	$118.67	$126.96	+$8.29	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Utahavg 71¢	$85.91	$91.96	+$6.05	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3CTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 8¢	$84.66	$79.37	-$5.29	42% 194-273 (467)
TO torta.tech<$100	Utahavg 78¢	$22.62	$22.04	-$0.58	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
HRTrading<$100	Utahavg 82¢	$14.76	$17.94	+$3.18	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Cincinnatiavg 18¢	$17.19	$16.71	-$0.48	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Utahavg 71¢	$4.9	$5.24	+$0.34	73% 6697-2416 (9113)

takeormake

Utah

Invested

$2,472.56

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$61.13

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Utah

Invested

$1,878.18

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$17.68

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Painfulvoid

Utah

Invested

$304.43

Value

$314.64

PnL

+$10.21

Record

63%

1757-1023 (2780)

justaluckydude

Utah

Invested

$118.67

Value

$126.96

PnL

+$8.29

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

UpTheBlues<$100

Utah

Invested

$85.91

Value

$91.96

PnL

+$6.05

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3CTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$84.66

Value

$79.37

PnL

-$5.29

Record

42%

194-273 (467)

torta.tech<$100

Utah

Invested

$22.62

Value

$22.04

PnL

-$0.58

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

HRTrading<$100

Utah

Invested

$14.76

Value

$17.94

PnL

+$3.18

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Cincinnati

Invested

$17.19

Value

$16.71

PnL

-$0.48

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Utah

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$0.34

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.