Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Arizona (54%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Arizona (-1.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (30%) · Utah at 46¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Arizona54¢Utah46¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 46¢

-18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arizona54%

Utah46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah3 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares16,794

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Arizona7 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares16,169

Combined PnL+$50.92

Utah — 30%Arizona — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedArizona 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Utahavg 55.9¢	$9.3K	$7.7K	$-1.6K	59% 1050-730 (1780)
HO HomeRunHazard	Arizonaavg 42¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$60.06	56% 3787-2956 (6743)
RN1	Arizonaavg 52.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$43.57	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
38 38791873984189	Arizonaavg 47.1¢	$654.13	$610.2	+$65.22	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 42.4¢	$254.07	$251.89	-$2.18	48% 402-433 (835)
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 42.4¢	$183.29	$179.25	-$4.04
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 57¢	$70.79	$72.65	+$1.86
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Arizonaavg 42¢	$188.16	$185.92	-$2.24	53% 353-317 (670)
PA Pan9X<$100	Arizonaavg 47.5¢	$47.82	$52.82	+$5	50% 1850-1880 (3730)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Utahavg 54¢	$36.9	$38.27	+$1.37	56% 175-139 (314)
VeryLucky888<$100	Arizonaavg 43.9¢	$19.4	$19.22	-$0.17	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
GH ghorrock<$100	Arizonaavg 47¢	$4.74	$4.33	-$0.4	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Utahavg 47¢	$0.9	$0.91	+$0.01	51% 994-962 (1956)

primmCTR

Utah

Invested

$9,341.75

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

59%

1050-730 (1780)

HomeRunHazard

Arizona

Invested

$5,051.59

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$60.06

Record

56%

3787-2956 (6743)

RN1

Arizona

Invested

$1,252.63

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$43.57

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

38791873984189

Arizona

Invested

$654.13

Value

$610.2

PnL

+$65.22

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$254.07

Value

$251.89

PnL

-$2.18

Record

48%

402-433 (835)

Both legs:

Arizona$183.2942.4¢-$4.04

Utah$70.7957¢+$1.86

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Arizona

Invested

$188.16

Value

$185.92

PnL

-$2.24

Record

53%

353-317 (670)

Pan9X<$100

Arizona

Invested

$47.82

Value

$52.82

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

1850-1880 (3730)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$36.9

Value

$38.27

PnL

+$1.37

Record

56%

175-139 (314)

VeryLucky888<$100

Arizona

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.22

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

ghorrock<$100

Arizona

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

994-962 (1956)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedArizona 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Arizona 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.