Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Arizona (60%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Utah (-3.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (83%) · Utah at 41¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Utah41¢Arizona59¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 83%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$54.9

Smart Money Entry

40.1¢ → 40.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Utah41%

Arizona60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arizona2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,521

Combined PnL+$84.31

Utah10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,811

Combined PnL-$29.41

Arizona — 17%Utah — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AU Aurelius7	Arizonaavg 57.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$85.02	3% 5-139 (144)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Utahavg 39¢	$913.58	$937	+$23.43	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
38 38791873984189CTR	Utahavg 41.9¢	$690.53	$653.81	-$36.72	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
VeryLucky888CTR	Utahavg 42¢	$409.88	$311.14	-$26.21	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
DA darkumbreon88	Arizonaavg 60.8¢	$163.52	$162.81	-$0.71	61% 1053-665 (1718)
NM NM-PCTR	Utahavg 38¢	$143.2	$150.38	+$7.17	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
GC GC-PCTR	Utahavg 38¢	$133	$134.75	+$1.75	39% 419-652 (1071)
LI LimousinCTR	Utahavg 39.2¢	$105.59	$107.64	+$2.06	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Utahavg 40¢	$26.76	$26.76	+$0	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Utahavg 40¢	$18	$18	+$0	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Utahavg 42.3¢	$14.22	$9.09	-$0.76	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Utahavg 43¢	$1.1	$0.99	-$0.12	47% 985-1122 (2107)

Aurelius7

Arizona

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$85.02

Record

5-139 (144)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Utah

Invested

$913.58

Value

$937

PnL

+$23.43

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

38791873984189CTR

Utah

Invested

$690.53

Value

$653.81

PnL

-$36.72

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

VeryLucky888CTR

Utah

Invested

$409.88

Value

$311.14

PnL

-$26.21

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

darkumbreon88

Arizona

Invested

$163.52

Value

$162.81

PnL

-$0.71

Record

61%

1053-665 (1718)

NM-PCTR

Utah

Invested

$143.2

Value

$150.38

PnL

+$7.17

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

GC-PCTR

Utah

Invested

$133

Value

$134.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

LimousinCTR

Utah

Invested

$105.59

Value

$107.64

PnL

+$2.06

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$26.76

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$18

Value

$18

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$14.22

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Utah

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.