Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Utah, while the market favors Arizona (52%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Utah (-2.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (58%) · Utah at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Utah49¢Arizona51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Utah

Consensus Traders

Utah 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$115.79

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 48.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Utah49%

Arizona52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utah7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,589

Combined PnL+$113.85

Arizona5 traders

Total Value$133.17

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$1.94

Utah — 58%Arizona — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Utah 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 53.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$48.7	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 53.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$22.28
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 50¢	$528.5	$502.08	-$26.43
VE VenusianCTR	Utahavg 46¢	$832.6	$877.85	+$45.25	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Utahavg 47¢	$680.73	$702.46	+$21.73	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Utahavg 47¢	$578.21	$596.66	+$18.45	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
nigiri99CTR	Utahavg 47¢	$399.97	$412.74	+$12.76	52% 602-565 (1167)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Arizonaavg 53.3¢	$341.01	$334.56	-$6.46	47% 339-375 (714)
└ Arizona leg	Arizonaavg 53.3¢	$265.34	$256.47	-$8.87
└ Utah leg	Utahavg 47¢	$75.67	$78.09	+$2.41
OD OddstormCTR	Utahavg 47¢	$309.73	$319.62	+$9.89	33% 109-217 (326)
NM NM-PCTR	Utahavg 45¢	$157.5	$157.5	+$0	59% 3827-2633 (6460)
GC GC-PCTR	Utahavg 45¢	$134.91	$140.68	+$5.77	39% 419-652 (1071)
SU suntori<$100	Arizonaavg 54.8¢	$50.34	$48.24	-$2.1	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Arizonaavg 50¢	$43.86	$47.37	+$3.51	5% 19-393 (412)
PA Pan9X<$100	Arizonaavg 54¢	$27.18	$18.93	+$0.03	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrock<$100	Arizonaavg 47¢	$11.36	$11.79	+$0.44	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
CR Crazyboy77<$100	Arizonaavg 51¢	$6.78	$6.84	+$0.07	13% 16-107 (123)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$1,708.93

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$48.7

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Both legs:

Arizona$1,180.4353.5¢-$22.28

Utah$528.550¢-$26.43

VenusianCTR

Utah

Invested

$832.6

Value

$877.85

PnL

+$45.25

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

LightParadoxCTR

Utah

Invested

$680.73

Value

$702.46

PnL

+$21.73

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Utah

Invested

$578.21

Value

$596.66

PnL

+$18.45

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

nigiri99CTR

Utah

Invested

$399.97

Value

$412.74

PnL

+$12.76

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Arizona

Invested

$341.01

Value

$334.56

PnL

-$6.46

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

Both legs:

Arizona$265.3453.3¢-$8.87

Utah$75.6747¢+$2.41

OddstormCTR

Utah

Invested

$309.73

Value

$319.62

PnL

+$9.89

Record

33%

109-217 (326)

NM-PCTR

Utah

Invested

$157.5

Value

$157.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3827-2633 (6460)

GC-PCTR

Utah

Invested

$134.91

Value

$140.68

PnL

+$5.77

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

suntori<$100

Arizona

Invested

$50.34

Value

$48.24

PnL

-$2.1

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Arizona

Invested

$43.86

Value

$47.37

PnL

+$3.51

Record

19-393 (412)

Pan9X<$100

Arizona

Invested

$27.18

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrock<$100

Arizona

Invested

$11.36

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Crazyboy77<$100

Arizona

Invested

$6.78

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0.07

Record

13%

16-107 (123)

Research grade

NeutralUtah at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Utah

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Utah. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Utah 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utah wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.