USC vs. Indiana: O/U 53.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 83¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$290.38

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 83¢

+53% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,508

Combined PnL-$26.58

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,816

Combined PnL-$263.8

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Underavg 54¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$0	22% 179-619 (798)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$260.09	59% 932-653 (1585)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 43¢	$613.19	$588.52	+$0.17	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$428.28	$413.34	-$13.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$161.69	$175.18	+$13.49
38 38791873984189	Underavg 57¢	$576.86	$541.92	-$29.94	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
NM NM-P	Underavg 54¢	$189	$189	+$0	59% 3799-2617 (6416)
GC GC-P	Underavg 54¢	$189	$189	+$0	38% 395-632 (1027)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$87.02	$83.32	-$3.7	47% 100-111 (211)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 48.5¢	$66.39	$67.82	+$1.42	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$24.84	$24.84	-$0	54% 286-244 (530)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 48¢	$15.84	$17.66	+$1.81	44% 203-260 (463)
RN1<$100	Underavg 49¢	$8.01	$8.09	+$0.08	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.82	+$0.04	37% 1116-1869 (2985)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$2,494.9

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,574.62

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$260.09

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$613.19

Value

$588.52

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Over$428.2843¢-$13.32

Under$161.6954¢+$13.49

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$576.86

Value

$541.92

PnL

-$29.94

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$189

Value

$189

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3799-2617 (6416)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$189

Value

$189

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.02

Value

$83.32

PnL

-$3.7

Record

47%

100-111 (211)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$66.39

Value

$67.82

PnL

+$1.42

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.84

Value

$24.84

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$15.84

Value

$17.66

PnL

+$1.81

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$8.01

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.04

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.