USC vs. Indiana: O/U 51.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 53¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$120.4

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 53¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,641

Combined PnL+$84.61

Over9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,087

Combined PnL+$35.79

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$77.11	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
PR primm	Overavg 51¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$22.93	59% 931-653 (1584)
BA banepirCTR	Underavg 49¢	$686	$693	+$7	57% 16-12 (28)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 51¢	$1.1K	$569.27	-$21.99	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LI Limousin	Overavg 48¢	$437.76	$469.68	+$31.92	36% 979-1704 (2683)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Overavg 49¢	$196	$194	-$2	11% 58-463 (521)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$51.5	+$4.5	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$50	$50.5	+$0.5	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.7	+$0.1	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.9	$5.15	+$0.25	45% 263-319 (582)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$4.95	-$0.05	54% 286-244 (530)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.58	+$0.13	56% 3687-2847 (6534)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$2,518.91

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$77.11

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

primm

Over

Invested

$2,338.77

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$22.93

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

banepirCTR

Under

Invested

$686

Value

$693

PnL

+$7

Record

57%

16-12 (28)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,072.88

Value

$569.27

PnL

-$21.99

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$437.76

Value

$469.68

PnL

+$31.92

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Over

Invested

$196

Value

$194

PnL

-$2

Record

11%

58-463 (521)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$51.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.