Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold USC, while the market favors Indiana (67%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Indiana (-6.5)

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold USC (100%) · USC at 34¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Indiana67¢USC33¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

USC

Consensus Traders

USC 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$31.52

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 33.5¢

-17% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

USC

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Indiana 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Indiana67%

USC34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

USC13 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares11,077

Combined PnL-$31.52

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on USC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUSC 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000USC 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	USCavg 39.1¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	+$230.73	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
RN1ARB<$100	USCavg 42¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$144.38	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
└ USC leg	USCavg 42¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$214.5
└ Indiana leg	Indianaavg 56¢	$462	$532.12	+$70.12
CI cigarettesCTR	USCavg 40¢	$1.1K	$932.14	-$118.16	53% 7192-6289 (13481)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	USCavg 43¢	$430	$435	+$5	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	USCavg 41.2¢	$358.7	$308.85	-$49.85	37% 1116-1869 (2985)
SL SlickRick123CTR	USCavg 39¢	$258.57	$235.36	-$23.21	35% 394-728 (1122)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	USCavg 41.2¢	$169.97	$156.9	-$13.07	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
65 6512395314597884CTR	USCavg 42.5¢	$175.7	$148.45	-$27.25	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
CM cm2897CTR	USCavg 44¢	$154.38	$142.1	-$12.28	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
PA Pan9XCTR	USCavg 41¢	$195.61	$140.23	-$19.89	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	USCavg 41¢	$20.5	$17.75	-$2.75	52% 883-823 (1706)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	USCavg 34¢	$15.11	$16.89	+$1.78	48% 281-306 (587)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	USCavg 42¢	$13.39	$12.11	-$1.28	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	USCavg 43¢	$11.17	$9.88	-$1.3	54% 1473-1278 (2751)

38791873984189CTR

USC

Invested

$2,126.13

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$230.73

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

RN1ARB<$100

USC

Invested

$1,848

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$144.38

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

Both legs:

USC$1,38642¢-$214.5

Indiana$46256¢+$70.12

cigarettesCTR

USC

Invested

$1,050.3

Value

$932.14

PnL

-$118.16

Record

53%

7192-6289 (13481)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

USC

Invested

$430

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

topdogbigboiCTR

USC

Invested

$358.7

Value

$308.85

PnL

-$49.85

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

SlickRick123CTR

USC

Invested

$258.57

Value

$235.36

PnL

-$23.21

Record

35%

394-728 (1122)

HomeRunHazardCTR

USC

Invested

$169.97

Value

$156.9

PnL

-$13.07

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

6512395314597884CTR

USC

Invested

$175.7

Value

$148.45

PnL

-$27.25

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

cm2897CTR

USC

Invested

$154.38

Value

$142.1

PnL

-$12.28

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

Pan9XCTR

USC

Invested

$195.61

Value

$140.23

PnL

-$19.89

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

NotJumpCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$20.5

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$2.75

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

GaditimaCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$15.11

Value

$16.89

PnL

+$1.78

Record

48%

281-306 (587)

ghorrockCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$13.39

Value

$12.11

PnL

-$1.28

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

USC

Invested

$11.17

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$1.3

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

Research grade

NeutralUSC at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

USC

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Indiana 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on USC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUSC 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000USC 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that USC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.