USC vs. Indiana

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana (78%) · Indiana at 76¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

USC25¢Indiana75¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Indiana

Consensus Traders

Indiana 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$30.55

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 75.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

USC25%

Indiana76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,530

Combined PnL+$29.77

USC2 traders

Total Value$25.54

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$0.78

Indiana — 78%USC — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Indiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on USC) and the top 1000 (6 on Indiana) disagree here.

ctrUSC 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Indiana 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Indianaavg 74¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$22.3	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
PU purplegatto	Indianaavg 76¢	$715.99	$711.28	-$4.71	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Indianaavg 72.9¢	$646.08	$665.39	+$19.32	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Indiana leg	Indianaavg 72.9¢	$401.89	$416.12	+$14.23
└ USC leg	USCavg 24¢	$244.19	$249.27	+$5.09
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Indianaavg 75¢	$600	$604	+$4	25% 343-1024 (1367)
GC GC-P	Indianaavg 74¢	$185	$188.75	+$3.75	37% 357-610 (967)
NM NM-P	Indianaavg 74¢	$185	$188.75	+$3.75	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
PA Pan9X	Indianaavg 75¢	$112.5	$113.25	+$0.75	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	USCavg 25¢	$13.58	$14.13	+$0.54	47% 899-999 (1898)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	USCavg 24¢	$11.18	$11.41	+$0.23	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Indianaavg 76¢	$10.64	$10.57	-$0.07	54% 286-244 (530)

38791873984189

Indiana

Invested

$1,692.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$22.3

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

purplegatto

Indiana

Invested

$715.99

Value

$711.28

PnL

-$4.71

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Indiana

Invested

$646.08

Value

$665.39

PnL

+$19.32

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Indiana$401.8972.9¢+$14.23

USC$244.1924¢+$5.09

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Indiana

Invested

$600

Value

$604

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

343-1024 (1367)

GC-P

Indiana

Invested

$185

Value

$188.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

NM-P

Indiana

Invested

$185

Value

$188.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

Pan9X

Indiana

Invested

$112.5

Value

$113.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$13.58

Value

$14.13

PnL

+$0.54

Record

47%

899-999 (1898)

ghorrockCTR<$100

USC

Invested

$11.18

Value

$11.41

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Indiana

Invested

$10.64

Value

$10.57

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Indiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on USC) and the top 1000 (6 on Indiana) disagree here.

ctrUSC 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUSC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Indiana 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Indiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.