Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (68%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

UNLV vs. New Mexico: O/U 45.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 33¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$645.35

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 32.5¢

-35% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares10,333

Combined PnL-$688.8

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,616

Combined PnL+$43.45

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 52¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$476.22	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 52.4¢	$1.1K	$900	-$147.28	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
RN1	Underavg 67¢	$522.57	$526.46	+$3.89	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 33.9¢	$427.01	$408.85	-$18.16	59% 1044-726 (1770)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 66¢	$283.39	$289.25	+$5.86	50% 3954-3949 (7903)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 47.2¢	$147.37	$171.88	+$24.51	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Overavg 52.3¢	$142.34	$95.2	-$47.14	53% 348-313 (661)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 61.7¢	$58.54	$40.27	+$2.17	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
NM NM-P<$100	Underavg 47¢	$18.69	$24.66	+$5.97	59% 3879-2660 (6539)
IM imjustkenisghey<$100	Underavg 46¢	$3.02	$4.07	+$1.05	42% 45-61 (106)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,537.62

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$476.22

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,058.76

Value

$900

PnL

-$147.28

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

RN1

Under

Invested

$522.57

Value

$526.46

PnL

+$3.89

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$427.01

Value

$408.85

PnL

-$18.16

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$283.39

Value

$289.25

PnL

+$5.86

Record

50%

3954-3949 (7903)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$147.37

Value

$171.88

PnL

+$24.51

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Over

Invested

$142.34

Value

$95.2

PnL

-$47.14

Record

53%

348-313 (661)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$58.54

Value

$40.27

PnL

+$2.17

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

NM-P<$100

Under

Invested

$18.69

Value

$24.66

PnL

+$5.97

Record

59%

3879-2660 (6539)

imjustkenisghey<$100

Under

Invested

$3.02

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$1.05

Record

42%

45-61 (106)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.