Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold New Mexico, while the market favors UNLV (77%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: New Mexico (-20.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (75%) · New Mexico at 23¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

New Mexico23¢UNLV77¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$328.58

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 23¢

-57% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNew Mexico at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors UNLV 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico23%

UNLV77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,576

Combined PnL+$69.35

UNLV2 traders

Total Value$846.17

Total Shares1,303

Combined PnL+$259.23

New Mexico — 75%UNLV — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000New Mexico 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmARB<$100	UNLVavg 44¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$207.56	59% 1044-726 (1770)
└ UNLV leg	UNLVavg 44¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$296.45
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 55¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$88.89
RN1CTR	New Mexicoavg 55.3¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$85.07	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
LI LightParadoxCTR	New Mexicoavg 45¢	$810.85	$1.1K	+$252.92	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
US User7429	UNLVavg 45¢	$584.65	$844.49	+$259.84	42% 374-523 (897)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	New Mexicoavg 58¢	$479.52	$434.04	-$45.47	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	New Mexicoavg 57.6¢	$286.13	$257.17	-$28.96	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
PA Pan9XCTR	New Mexicoavg 57.1¢	$191.36	$175.93	-$15.43	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
38 38791873984189CTR	New Mexicoavg 55¢	$565.68	$46.64	-$8.64	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
GH ghorrock<$100	UNLVavg 56¢	$2.29	$1.68	-$0.61	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

primmARB<$100

UNLV

Invested

$3,816.65

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$207.56

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

Both legs:

UNLV$2,594.4344¢+$296.45

New Mexico$1,222.2255¢-$88.89

RN1CTR

New Mexico

Invested

$1,693.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$85.07

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

LightParadoxCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$810.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$252.92

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

User7429

UNLV

Invested

$584.65

Value

$844.49

PnL

+$259.84

Record

42%

374-523 (897)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$479.52

Value

$434.04

PnL

-$45.47

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

topdogbigboiCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$286.13

Value

$257.17

PnL

-$28.96

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

Pan9XCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$191.36

Value

$175.93

PnL

-$15.43

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

38791873984189CTR

New Mexico

Invested

$565.68

Value

$46.64

PnL

-$8.64

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

ghorrock<$100

UNLV

Invested

$2.29

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.61

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

AvoidNew Mexico at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors UNLV 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNew Mexico 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000New Mexico 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.