Spread: New Mexico (-17.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (36%) · New Mexico at 51¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 15

New Mexico51¢UNLV49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 36%

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$32.29

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 50.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico51%

UNLV50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares10,865

Combined PnL+$118.76

UNLV7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,389

Combined PnL-$86.47

New Mexico — 36%UNLV — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUNLV 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUNLV 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UNLV 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	New Mexicoavg 48.9¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$30.42	36% 948-1669 (2617)
MA MadridTime	New Mexicoavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$55.57	37% 970-1635 (2605)
38 38791873984189CTR	UNLVavg 51.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$33.17	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
FO forecastication4CTR	UNLVavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$14.28	33% 168-335 (503)
65 6512395314597884CTR	UNLVavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10.15	50% 3804-3775 (7579)
LI LightParadox	New Mexicoavg 46¢	$540.5	$564	+$23.5	37% 960-1662 (2622)
VeryLucky888CTR	UNLVavg 51.5¢	$1.0K	$431.73	-$14.27	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
HO HomeRunHazard	New Mexicoavg 48¢	$296.72	$305.99	+$9.27	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	UNLVavg 53¢	$284.01	$270.68	-$13.33	48% 286-306 (592)
SE sentrioCTR	UNLVavg 51¢	$114.02	$112.9	-$1.12	42% 995-1363 (2358)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UNLVavg 52¢	$5.24	$5.09	-$0.15	52% 1721-1568 (3289)

Venusian

New Mexico

Invested

$2,626.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$30.42

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

MadridTime

New Mexico

Invested

$1,778.4

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$55.57

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

38791873984189CTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,486.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$33.17

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

forecastication4CTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,457.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$14.28

Record

33%

168-335 (503)

6512395314597884CTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,034.86

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10.15

Record

50%

3804-3775 (7579)

LightParadox

New Mexico

Invested

$540.5

Value

$564

PnL

+$23.5

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

VeryLucky888CTR

UNLV

Invested

$1,030

Value

$431.73

PnL

-$14.27

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

HomeRunHazard

New Mexico

Invested

$296.72

Value

$305.99

PnL

+$9.27

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

UNLV

Invested

$284.01

Value

$270.68

PnL

-$13.33

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

sentrioCTR

UNLV

Invested

$114.02

Value

$112.9

PnL

-$1.12

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UNLV

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUNLV 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUNLV 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UNLV 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.