Spread: New Mexico (-14.5)
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (64%) · New Mexico at 57¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
New Mexico
11
New Mexico 64%
$3.4K
$136.08
52.2¢ → 57¢
+9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNew Mexico at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
64% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | New Mexicoavg 51.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.8K | +$482.62 | 56% 3778-2937 (6715) |
38 38791873984189CTR | UNLVavg 48.3¢ | $1.5K | $441.23 | -$317.21 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
SN SnakeBall | New Mexicoavg 48¢ | $263.07 | $389.13 | +$126.06 | 47% 1065-1216 (2281) |
PR primmCTR | UNLVavg 29¢ | $265.45 | $260.78 | -$4.68 | 59% 1044-726 (1770) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | UNLVavg 52¢ | $436.81 | $243.61 | -$193.2 | 46% 558-656 (1214) |
 VeryLucky888 | New Mexicoavg 49¢ | $108.43 | $157.12 | +$48.68 | 54% 1641-1409 (3050) |
PA Pan9X | New Mexicoavg 71.5¢ | $143 | $138 | -$5 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | New Mexicoavg 48.5¢ | $16.92 | $18.32 | +$1.4 | 53% 2063-1842 (3905) |
 RN1<$100 | New Mexicoavg 71¢ | $10.97 | $10.66 | -$0.31 | 55% 5703-4745 (10448) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | New Mexicoavg 71¢ | $5.09 | $4.95 | -$0.14 | 38% 1308-2106 (3414) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | UNLVavg 46¢ | $5.79 | $3.65 | -$2.14 | 24% 201-650 (851) |
Invested
$1,289.99
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$482.62
Record
56%
3778-2937 (6715)
Invested
$1,479.8
Value
$441.23
PnL
-$317.21
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
Invested
$263.07
Value
$389.13
PnL
+$126.06
Record
47%
1065-1216 (2281)
Invested
$265.45
Value
$260.78
PnL
-$4.68
Record
59%
1044-726 (1770)
Invested
$436.81
Value
$243.61
PnL
-$193.2
Record
46%
558-656 (1214)
VeryLucky888Invested
$108.43
Value
$157.12
PnL
+$48.68
Record
54%
1641-1409 (3050)
Invested
$143
Value
$138
PnL
-$5
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
Invested
$16.92
Value
$18.32
PnL
+$1.4
Record
53%
2063-1842 (3905)
RN1<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$10.66
PnL
-$0.31
Record
55%
5703-4745 (10448)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.14
Record
38%
1308-2106 (3414)
Invested
$5.79
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$2.14
Record
24%
201-650 (851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
New Mexico — $1.8K
38791873984189
CTRUNLV — $441.23
SnakeBall
New Mexico — $389.13
primm
CTRUNLV — $260.78
omnibus-076daa
CTRUNLV — $243.61
VeryLucky888
New Mexico — $157.12
Pan9X
New Mexico — $138
ghorrock
New Mexico — $18.32
RN1
New Mexico — $10.66
topdogbigboi
New Mexico — $4.95