UNLV vs. New Mexico

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (56%) · New Mexico at 90¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

UNLV11¢New Mexico89¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 56%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$64.25

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 89.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UNLV11%

New Mexico90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,365

Combined PnL+$42.29

UNLV4 traders

Total Value$532.91

Total Shares4,635

Combined PnL+$21.96

New Mexico — 56%UNLV — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UNLV) and the top 1000 (4 on New Mexico) disagree here.

whaleNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNew Mexico 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUNLV 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000New Mexico 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	New Mexicoavg 89¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$18.46	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
nigiri99	New Mexicoavg 88.3¢	$529.12	$551.08	+$21.96	52% 602-565 (1167)
GA gagarin59CTR	UNLVavg 11¢	$433.89	$453.62	+$19.72	40% 66-99 (165)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	New Mexicoavg 90¢	$124.2	$123.51	-$0.69	53% 310-274 (584)
FE ferdinand2	New Mexicoavg 89¢	$109.47	$110.09	+$0.62	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
VeryLucky888CTR	UNLVavg 11.2¢	$109.36	$77.69	+$2.39	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
GH ghorrock<$100	New Mexicoavg 84¢	$36.38	$38.33	+$1.95	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	UNLVavg 10¢	$1	$1.05	+$0.05	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	UNLVavg 15¢	$0.76	$0.55	-$0.2	47% 985-1122 (2107)

HomeRunHazard

New Mexico

Invested

$3,079.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$18.46

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

nigiri99

New Mexico

Invested

$529.12

Value

$551.08

PnL

+$21.96

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

gagarin59CTR

UNLV

Invested

$433.89

Value

$453.62

PnL

+$19.72

Record

40%

66-99 (165)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

New Mexico

Invested

$124.2

Value

$123.51

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

ferdinand2

New Mexico

Invested

$109.47

Value

$110.09

PnL

+$0.62

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

VeryLucky888CTR

UNLV

Invested

$109.36

Value

$77.69

PnL

+$2.39

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

ghorrock<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$36.38

Value

$38.33

PnL

+$1.95

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

UNLV

Invested

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

UNLV

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Research grade

NeutralNew Mexico at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on New Mexico. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UNLV) and the top 1000 (4 on New Mexico) disagree here.

whaleNew Mexico 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNew Mexico 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUNLV 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000New Mexico 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.