Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (77%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
UMass vs. Toledo: O/U 53.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 24¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
$1.2K
$261.17
42.5¢ → 23.5¢
-45% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Under 77%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $454.68 | $555.6 | +$100.92 | 31% 412-920 (1332) |
PR primm | Underavg 62¢ | $293.88 | $357.87 | +$63.99 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | Overavg 37.4¢ | $114.91 | $168.91 | +$54 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $85.67 | $120.63 | +$34.95 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $14.44 | $20.9 | +$6.46 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $8.56 | $8.56 | +$0 | 44% 124-159 (283) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $2.75 | +$0.85 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
Invested
$454.68
Value
$555.6
PnL
+$100.92
Record
31%
412-920 (1332)
Invested
$293.88
Value
$357.87
PnL
+$63.99
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$114.91
Value
$168.91
PnL
+$54
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$85.67
Value
$120.63
PnL
+$34.95
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$14.44
Value
$20.9
PnL
+$6.46
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$8.56
Value
$8.56
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
124-159 (283)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.85
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.