Spread: Toledo (-16.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (29%) · Toledo at 82¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Toledo
7
Toledo 29%
1 arb excluded
$6.9K
$975.06
57.9¢ → 82¢
+42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralToledo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Toledoavg 58.5¢ | $3.0K | $4.3K | +$1.2K | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
 RN1CTR | UMassavg 41.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$12.76 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | UMassavg 41¢ | $454.87 | $449.33 | -$5.55 | 53% 1851-1666 (3517) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | UMassavg 33¢ | $489.31 | $266.86 | -$222.45 | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | UMassavg 54¢ | $156.25 | $157.76 | +$1.51 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
SN SnakeBall | Toledoavg 46¢ | $130.99 | $129.57 | -$1.42 | 47% 299-342 (641) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | UMassavg 41.2¢ | $149.7 | $102.67 | -$47.02 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
| └ UMass leg | UMassavg 41.2¢ | $120.59 | $71.72 | -$48.87 | |
| └ Toledo leg | Toledoavg 71¢ | $29.11 | $30.96 | +$1.85 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | UMassavg 41.2¢ | $70.86 | $37.21 | -$28.05 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
Invested
$3,032.68
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,503.67
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$12.76
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$454.87
Value
$449.33
PnL
-$5.55
Record
53%
1851-1666 (3517)
Invested
$489.31
Value
$266.86
PnL
-$222.45
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
Invested
$156.25
Value
$157.76
PnL
+$1.51
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$130.99
Value
$129.57
PnL
-$1.42
Record
47%
299-342 (641)
Invested
$149.7
Value
$102.67
PnL
-$47.02
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Both legs:
Invested
$70.86
Value
$37.21
PnL
-$28.05
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.