Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Toledo, while the market favors UMass (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Toledo (-14.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (80%) · Toledo at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Toledo
5
Toledo 80%
$7.2K
-$150.35
48¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralToledo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors UMass 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Toledo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW PwaddlerCTR | Toledoavg 48¢ | $7.1K | $7.0K | -$148.87 | 49% 259-274 (533) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Toledoavg 48¢ | $115.68 | $113.27 | -$2.41 | 49% 220-229 (449) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | UMassavg 50¢ | $23.5 | $24.44 | +$0.94 | 57% 3075-2312 (5387) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Toledoavg 47¢ | $11.75 | $11.88 | +$0.13 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Toledoavg 48¢ | $6.45 | $6.32 | -$0.13 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$7,145.79
Value
$7.0K
PnL
-$148.87
Record
49%
259-274 (533)
Invested
$115.68
Value
$113.27
PnL
-$2.41
Record
49%
220-229 (449)
Invested
$23.5
Value
$24.44
PnL
+$0.94
Record
57%
3075-2312 (5387)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$11.75
Value
$11.88
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$6.32
PnL
-$0.13
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.