Spread: Toledo (-10.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (67%) · Toledo at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Toledo
6
Toledo 67%
$3.2K
$83.97
72.3¢ → 93.5¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralToledo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Toledo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Toledoavg 64.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$431.11 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
 RN1 | Toledoavg 81¢ | $649.54 | $737.84 | +$88.3 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
 alpheclabs2 | Toledoavg 82¢ | $299.3 | $335.8 | +$36.5 | 44% 124-159 (283) |
PA Pan9X | Toledoavg 77.6¢ | $267.65 | $317.4 | +$49.75 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
PR primmCTR | UMassavg 43¢ | $464.43 | $221.51 | -$242.92 | 61% 870-566 (1436) |
65 6512395314597884CTR | UMassavg 19.2¢ | $421.71 | $142.94 | -$278.78 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
Invested
$1,002.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$431.11
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
RN1Invested
$649.54
Value
$737.84
PnL
+$88.3
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
alpheclabs2Invested
$299.3
Value
$335.8
PnL
+$36.5
Record
44%
124-159 (283)
Invested
$267.65
Value
$317.4
PnL
+$49.75
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$464.43
Value
$221.51
PnL
-$242.92
Record
61%
870-566 (1436)
Invested
$421.71
Value
$142.94
PnL
-$278.78
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.