Kentucky vs. Tennessee
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tennessee (75%) · Tennessee at 66¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Tennessee
8
Tennessee 75%
$12.9K
$95.67
66.3¢ → 65.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralTennessee at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
94h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Tennesseeavg 67¢ | $6.5K | $6.5K | -$47.87 | 58% 47221-34058 (81279) |
HI hi774c | Tennesseeavg 67¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$29.74 | 46% 5267-6109 (11376) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Tennesseeavg 61.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$107.34 | 54% 531-449 (980) |
SN SnakeBall | Tennesseeavg 67¢ | $493.12 | $489.44 | +$7.36 | 50% 38089-37336 (75425) |
38 38791873984189 | Tennesseeavg 65.8¢ | $486.91 | $487.72 | +$0.82 | 48% 62058-66943 (129001) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Kentuckyavg 33.7¢ | $51.48 | $51.23 | -$0.25 | 54% 18313-15414 (33727) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Kentuckyavg 34.7¢ | $46.51 | $44.94 | -$1.57 | 51% 1749-1699 (3448) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Tennesseeavg 66¢ | $14.91 | $15.02 | +$0.11 | 58% 21564-15645 (37209) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$6,515.56
Value
$6.5K
PnL
-$47.87
Record
58%
47221-34058 (81279)
Invested
$3,985.16
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$29.74
Record
46%
5267-6109 (11376)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$1,375.97
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$107.34
Record
54%
531-449 (980)
Invested
$493.12
Value
$489.44
PnL
+$7.36
Record
50%
38089-37336 (75425)
Invested
$486.91
Value
$487.72
PnL
+$0.82
Record
48%
62058-66943 (129001)
Invested
$51.48
Value
$51.23
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
18313-15414 (33727)
Invested
$46.51
Value
$44.94
PnL
-$1.57
Record
51%
1749-1699 (3448)
Invested
$14.91
Value
$15.02
PnL
+$0.11
Record
58%
21564-15645 (37209)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.