Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Air Force, while the market favors UConn (57%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Air Force (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force (75%) · Air Force at 43¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Air Force
4
Air Force 75%
$3.4K
-$74.75
49.2¢ → 43¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAir Force at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors UConn 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | UConnavg 49¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$184.69 | 46% 403-473 (876) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Air Forceavg 48.4¢ | $1.0K | $913.74 | -$115.66 | 58% 40596-29352 (69948) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Air Forceavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $860 | -$140 | 54% 713-605 (1318) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Air Forceavg 50¢ | $27 | $23.22 | -$3.78 | 54% 2891-2482 (5373) |
Invested
$1,392.24
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$184.69
Record
46%
403-473 (876)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,029.4
Value
$913.74
PnL
-$115.66
Record
58%
40596-29352 (69948)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$860
PnL
-$140
Record
54%
713-605 (1318)
Invested
$27
Value
$23.22
PnL
-$3.78
Record
54%
2891-2482 (5373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.