Spread: Air Force (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force (43%) · Air Force at 76¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Air Force
7
Air Force 43%
$25.0K
-$318.26
51¢ → 75.5¢
+48% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAir Force at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Air Force. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GM gmpm2 | Air Forceavg 51¢ | $44.0K | $22.2K | -$219.85 | 53% 337-299 (636) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | UConnavg 52¢ | $3.8K | $1.9K | -$95.83 | 73% 3586-1321 (4907) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | UConnavg 52¢ | $644.74 | $632.34 | -$12.4 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Air Forceavg 51¢ | $140.25 | $140.25 | +$0 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | UConnavg 51¢ | $102 | $102 | +$0 | 54% 4896-4121 (9017) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | UConnavg 18.9¢ | $34.58 | $43.92 | +$9.34 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Air Forceavg 50¢ | $23.51 | $23.98 | +$0.47 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
Invested
$43,970
Value
$22.2K
PnL
-$219.85
Record
53%
337-299 (636)
Invested
$3,833
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$95.83
Record
73%
3586-1321 (4907)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$644.74
Value
$632.34
PnL
-$12.4
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$140.25
Value
$140.25
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
Invested
$102
Value
$102
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4896-4121 (9017)
Invested
$34.58
Value
$43.92
PnL
+$9.34
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$23.51
Value
$23.98
PnL
+$0.47
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.