Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold UConn, while the market favors Air Force (52%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
UConn vs. Air Force
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UConn (83%) · UConn at 49¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
UConn
6
UConn 83%
$10.0K
-$31.3
50.6¢ → 48.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUConn at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Air Force 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888CTR | UConnavg 50.9¢ | $4.1K | $4.1K | +$9.46 | 55% 7128-5716 (12844) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Air Forceavg 51¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$91.88 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR | UConnavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$0 | 54% 2305-1991 (4296) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | UConnavg 49¢ | $931 | $969 | +$38 | 54% 4890-4116 (9006) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | UConnavg 49.9¢ | $568.25 | $580.4 | +$12.14 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | UConnavg 50.7¢ | $170.38 | $171.36 | +$0.98 | 74% 6686-2399 (9085) |
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$4,056.71
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$9.46
Record
55%
7128-5716 (12844)
Invested
$2,343
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$91.88
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$1,999.71
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2305-1991 (4296)
Invested
$931
Value
$969
PnL
+$38
Record
54%
4890-4116 (9006)
Invested
$568.25
Value
$580.4
PnL
+$12.14
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
Invested
$170.38
Value
$171.36
PnL
+$0.98
Record
74%
6686-2399 (9085)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.