Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UCLA, while the market favors Minnesota (55%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: UCLA (-5.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (13%) · UCLA at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

UCLA46¢Minnesota54¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$28.58

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Minnesota 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UCLA46%

Minnesota55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCLA1 trader

Total Value$585.24

Total Shares1,259

Combined PnL+$6.29

Minnesota7 traders

Total Value$622.13

Total Shares1,129

Combined PnL+$22.29

UCLA — 13%Minnesota — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UCLA) and the top 1000 (5 on Minnesota) disagree here.

whaleMinnesota 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUCLA 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Minnesota 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	UCLAavg 46¢	$578.95	$585.24	+$6.29	47% 1316-1503 (2819)
nigiri99	Minnesotaavg 52¢	$387.72	$406.57	+$13.25	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Minnesotaavg 51¢	$293.7	$297.66	+$2.61	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Minnesota leg	Minnesotaavg 51¢	$146.88	$156.96	+$7.2
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 48¢	$146.82	$140.7	-$4.59
SN SnakeBall<$100	Minnesotaavg 45.7¢	$68.97	$82.32	+$11.08	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
VeryLucky888	Minnesotaavg 49.5¢	$1.0K	$65.64	-$4.17	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
BA bands1<$100	Minnesotaavg 50¢	$20	$21.8	+$1.8	49% 419-429 (848)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Minnesotaavg 52¢	$17.66	$18.19	+$0.31	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
PA Pan9X<$100	Minnesotaavg 54¢	$20.4	$18.03	-$0.08	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
GH ghorrock<$100	Minnesotaavg 53¢	$9.5	$9.59	+$0.09	58% 21689-15792 (37481)

primmCTR

UCLA

Invested

$578.95

Value

$585.24

PnL

+$6.29

Record

47%

1316-1503 (2819)

nigiri99

Minnesota

Invested

$387.72

Value

$406.57

PnL

+$13.25

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

NM-PARB<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$293.7

Value

$297.66

PnL

+$2.61

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Minnesota$146.8851¢+$7.2

UCLA$146.8248¢-$4.59

SnakeBall<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$68.97

Value

$82.32

PnL

+$11.08

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

VeryLucky888

Minnesota

Invested

$1,009.09

Value

$65.64

PnL

-$4.17

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

bands1<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$20

Value

$21.8

PnL

+$1.8

Record

49%

419-429 (848)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$17.66

Value

$18.19

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

Pan9X<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$20.4

Value

$18.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

ghorrock<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Minnesota 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on UCLA) and the top 1000 (5 on Minnesota) disagree here.

whaleMinnesota 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUCLA 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Minnesota 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.