Spread: UCLA (-3.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (63%) · UCLA at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
UCLA
8
UCLA 63%
$3.7K
-$139
51.8¢ → 50.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUCLA at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | UCLAavg 51.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$2.24 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
 nigiri99CTR | Minnesotaavg 48.9¢ | $1.1K | $961.84 | -$107.96 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Minnesotaavg 49¢ | $783.92 | $775.92 | -$8 | 42% 8168-11360 (19528) |
IC ic4cream | UCLAavg 52.7¢ | $547.53 | $534.57 | -$12.96 | 56% 2788-2199 (4987) |
 VeryLucky888 | UCLAavg 52.4¢ | $1.1K | $205.39 | -$13.95 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
NM NM-P | UCLAavg 51¢ | $178.5 | $180.25 | +$1.75 | 64% 10182-5720 (15902) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | UCLAavg 51¢ | $13.26 | $13.39 | +$0.13 | 54% 10453-8773 (19226) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Minnesotaavg 47.7¢ | $3.19 | $2.94 | -$0.25 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
Invested
$1,023.12
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$2.24
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$1,069.8
Value
$961.84
PnL
-$107.96
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$783.92
Value
$775.92
PnL
-$8
Record
42%
8168-11360 (19528)
Invested
$547.53
Value
$534.57
PnL
-$12.96
Record
56%
2788-2199 (4987)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,055.65
Value
$205.39
PnL
-$13.95
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$178.5
Value
$180.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
64%
10182-5720 (15902)
Invested
$13.26
Value
$13.39
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
10453-8773 (19226)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.