UCLA vs. Minnesota

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (71%) · UCLA at 63¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 7

UCLA63¢Minnesota37¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 71%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$28.64

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

UCLA63%

Minnesota38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCLA5 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares14,350

Combined PnL-$62.57

Minnesota2 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares20,997

Combined PnL+$91.21

UCLA — 71%Minnesota — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	UCLAavg 63¢	$8.4K	$8.3K	-$66.27	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Minnesotaavg 37¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$103.02	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
65 6512395314597884	UCLAavg 66¢	$423.18	$429.59	+$6.41	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
38 38791873984189	UCLAavg 63.1¢	$224.65	$222.43	-$2.22	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Minnesotaavg 36¢	$141.68	$129.88	-$11.81	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
PA Pan9X<$100	UCLAavg 63¢	$31.5	$31.25	-$0.25	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
tradecraft<$100	UCLAavg 63¢	$30.76	$30.51	-$0.24	51% 6512-6277 (12789)

HomeRunHazard

UCLA

Invested

$8,350.05

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$66.27

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$7,623.34

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$103.02

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

6512395314597884

UCLA

Invested

$423.18

Value

$429.59

PnL

+$6.41

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

38791873984189

UCLA

Invested

$224.65

Value

$222.43

PnL

-$2.22

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

SnakeBallCTR

Minnesota

Invested

$141.68

Value

$129.88

PnL

-$11.81

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

Pan9X<$100

UCLA

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

tradecraft<$100

UCLA

Invested

$30.76

Value

$30.51

PnL

-$0.24

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.