Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UC Davis, while the market favors Weber State (88%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

UC Davis vs. Weber State

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold UC Davis (20%) · UC Davis at 13¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

UC Davis13¢Weber State87¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UC Davis

Consensus Traders

UC Davis 20%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$163.58

Research grade

AvoidUC Davis at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UC Davis

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Weber State 88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UC Davis13%

Weber State88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UC Davis1 trader

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,000

Combined PnL-$200

Weber State4 traders

Total Value$435.97

Total Shares555

Combined PnL+$36.42

UC Davis — 20%Weber State — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	UC Davisavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$200	54% 604-520 (1124)
AV averagejoetraders	Weber Stateavg 71¢	$191.7	$210.6	+$18.9	56% 542-427 (969)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Weber Stateavg 72.5¢	$187.83	$202.06	+$14.23	53% 429-386 (815)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Weber Stateavg 63¢	$12.13	$15.1	+$2.97	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
GH ghorrock<$100	Weber Stateavg 50¢	$7.9	$8.21	+$0.32	57% 13860-10628 (24488)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

UC Davis

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$200

Record

54%

604-520 (1124)

averagejoetraders

Weber State

Invested

$191.7

Value

$210.6

PnL

+$18.9

Record

56%

542-427 (969)

oxe78sh4w98

Weber State

Invested

$187.83

Value

$202.06

PnL

+$14.23

Record

53%

429-386 (815)

topdogbigboi<$100

Weber State

Invested

$12.13

Value

$15.1

PnL

+$2.97

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

ghorrock<$100

Weber State

Invested

$7.9

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Research grade

AvoidUC Davis at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

UC Davis

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Weber State 88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UC Davis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.