UAB vs. Temple: O/U 49.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (30%) · Under at 56¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 14

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 30%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

-$1.77

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 55.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares13,069

Combined PnL-$51.22

Over7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares12,984

Combined PnL+$49.45

Under — 30%Over — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Underavg 56¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$58.28	20% 15-59 (74)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 44¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$37.54	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.44	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 45¢	$838.86	$829.54	-$9.32	36% 948-1669 (2617)
PR primm	Underavg 55¢	$730.08	$736.72	+$6.64	59% 931-653 (1584)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 44¢	$391.04	$395.43	+$4.39	47% 895-994 (1889)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 44¢	$154	$155.75	+$1.75	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 44¢	$154	$155.75	+$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$80.08	$80.99	+$0.91	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 55¢	$46.74	$47.17	+$0.42	48% 286-306 (592)

lightotunnel35

Under

Invested

$6,527.6

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$58.28

Record

20%

15-59 (74)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,136.37

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$37.54

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,054.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.44

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$838.86

Value

$829.54

PnL

-$9.32

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

primm

Under

Invested

$730.08

Value

$736.72

PnL

+$6.64

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$391.04

Value

$395.43

PnL

+$4.39

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$154

Value

$155.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$154

Value

$155.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.08

Value

$80.99

PnL

+$0.91

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$46.74

Value

$47.17

PnL

+$0.42

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.