Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

UAB vs. South Florida: O/U 43.5

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 34¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 31

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$40.2K

Combined PnL

-$153.25

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 33.5¢

-34% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$40.2K

Total Shares79,138

Combined PnL-$153.25

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Underavg 50.7¢	$21.5K	$21.4K	-$88.31	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 51.8¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$25	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 51¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$37.02	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 52¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$122.62	47% 2510-2803 (5313)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 50.7¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$10.41	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 52.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$61.47	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$12.25	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	59% 4052-2862 (6914)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$292.83	$232.82	-$60.01	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 52.5¢	$140.12	$124.16	-$15.97	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$35.1	$35.1	+$0	50% 3870-3825 (7695)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$6.5	$6.57	+$0.07	54% 2988-2575 (5563)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$21,468.5

Value

$21.4K

PnL

-$88.31

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$3,939

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$25

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$3,934.41

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$37.02

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$3,188.23

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$122.62

Record

47%

2510-2803 (5313)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$3,081.63

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$10.41

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$2,031.89

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$61.47

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$1,249.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.25

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

Bagwell306CTR

Under

Invested

$1,019.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

59%

4052-2862 (6914)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$292.83

Value

$232.82

PnL

-$60.01

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$140.12

Value

$124.16

PnL

-$15.97

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.1

Value

$35.1

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.