UAB vs. South Florida: O/U 41.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$227.72

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 51¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,409

Combined PnL+$220.52

Over2 traders

Total Value$52.34

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$7.2

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 46¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$208	54% 4890-4116 (9006)
BA Bagwell306	Underavg 45¢	$93.92	$106.44	+$12.52	59% 4052-2864 (6916)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$25.08	$31.27	+$6.2	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 46.7¢	$20.07	$21.07	+$1	53% 10787-9397 (20184)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$1,934

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$208

Record

54%

4890-4116 (9006)

Bagwell306

Under

Invested

$93.92

Value

$106.44

PnL

+$12.52

Record

59%

4052-2864 (6916)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.08

Value

$31.27

PnL

+$6.2

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.07

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.