Spread: South Florida (-7.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold South Florida (67%) · South Florida at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
South Florida
6
South Florida 67%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
$43.09
54.5¢ → 61.5¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSouth Florida at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on South Florida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | South Floridaavg 59¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$0 | 52% 5777-5366 (11143) |
 VeryLucky888 | South Floridaavg 48.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | +$6.34 | 58% 41980-30479 (72459) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | UABavg 78.9¢ | $126.47 | $146.69 | +$20.22 | 53% 10787-9397 (20184) |
| └ South Florida leg | South Floridaavg 26.2¢ | $46.82 | $105.32 | +$58.5 | |
| └ UAB leg | UABavg 78.9¢ | $79.65 | $41.36 | -$38.28 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | UABavg 49¢ | $61.25 | $102.5 | +$45.63 | 58% 28754-21204 (49958) |
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100 | South Floridaavg 50¢ | $66.04 | $66.7 | +$0.66 | 48% 342-364 (706) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | South Floridaavg 49¢ | $33.4 | $33.4 | +$0 | 57% 13827-10598 (24425) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | UABavg 73¢ | $21.74 | $12.21 | -$9.53 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
NooseracInvested
$1,772.95
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
5777-5366 (11143)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,281.03
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$6.34
Record
58%
41980-30479 (72459)
Invested
$126.47
Value
$146.69
PnL
+$20.22
Record
53%
10787-9397 (20184)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.25
Value
$102.5
PnL
+$45.63
Record
58%
28754-21204 (49958)
Invested
$66.04
Value
$66.7
PnL
+$0.66
Record
48%
342-364 (706)
Invested
$33.4
Value
$33.4
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13827-10598 (24425)
Invested
$21.74
Value
$12.21
PnL
-$9.53
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.