UAB vs. South Florida

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold UAB (56%) · UAB at 52¢ · $36K held · ended Oct 31

UAB52¢South Florida48¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UAB

Consensus Traders

UAB 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.6K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 51.5¢

-4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUAB at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UAB

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UAB52%

South Florida49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Florida7 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares29,993

Combined PnL+$657.14

UAB9 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares34,515

Combined PnL+$396.99

South Florida — 44%UAB — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	South Floridaavg 45.1¢	$12.5K	$13.2K	+$659.32	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
ET ethanaz	UABavg 49¢	$10.6K	$11.0K	+$459.95	52% 669-624 (1293)
PR primm	UABavg 60¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$42.5	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
RN1	UABavg 58.9¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$33.36	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
hammyandcheeseCTR	South Floridaavg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	55% 390-318 (708)
BI BillBenter2026	UABavg 58¢	$643.17	$579.8	-$63.37	58% 18665-13716 (32381)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	South Floridaavg 41¢	$581.16	$576.16	-$5	53% 10787-9397 (20184)
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 41¢	$463.71	$446.75	-$16.96
└ UAB leg	UABavg 54.9¢	$117.45	$129.42	+$11.97
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	UABavg 52.2¢	$499.65	$489.65	-$10.01	52% 13790-12592 (26382)
└ UAB leg	UABavg 52.2¢	$376.97	$372.08	-$4.89
└ South Florida leg	South Floridaavg 50.6¢	$122.68	$117.57	-$5.11
AM AmericaFirst1	UABavg 61.6¢	$200.26	$193.38	-$6.88	62% 2190-1327 (3517)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 37.4¢	$57.24	$66.28	+$9.03	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	UABavg 27¢	$55.89	$54.86	-$1.03	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
HRTrading<$100	UABavg 54.1¢	$53.43	$51.82	-$1.61	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 50¢	$50	$48.5	-$1.5	41% 1964-2771 (4735)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	UABavg 27¢	$17.28	$38.08	+$19.52	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 73¢	$25.17	$25.35	+$0.18	74% 6674-2397 (9071)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	UABavg 27¢	$24.3	$23.85	-$0.45	50% 3872-3828 (7700)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	South Floridaavg 71¢	$2.45	$2.53	+$0.09	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	South Floridaavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.43	+$0.02	50% 7902-7934 (15836)

NooseracCTR

South Florida

Invested

$12,514.92

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$659.32

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

ethanaz

UAB

Invested

$10,560.02

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$459.95

Record

52%

669-624 (1293)

primm

UAB

Invested

$5,100

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$42.5

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

RN1

UAB

Invested

$3,161.41

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$33.36

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

hammyandcheeseCTR

South Florida

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

55%

390-318 (708)

BillBenter2026

UAB

Invested

$643.17

Value

$579.8

PnL

-$63.37

Record

58%

18665-13716 (32381)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

South Florida

Invested

$581.16

Value

$576.16

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

Both legs:

South Florida$463.7141¢-$16.96

UAB$117.4554.9¢+$11.97

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

UAB

Invested

$499.65

Value

$489.65

PnL

-$10.01

Record

52%

13790-12592 (26382)

Both legs:

UAB$376.9752.2¢-$4.89

South Florida$122.6850.6¢-$5.11

AmericaFirst1

UAB

Invested

$200.26

Value

$193.38

PnL

-$6.88

Record

62%

2190-1327 (3517)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$57.24

Value

$66.28

PnL

+$9.03

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

UpTheBlues<$100

UAB

Invested

$55.89

Value

$54.86

PnL

-$1.03

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

HRTrading<$100

UAB

Invested

$53.43

Value

$51.82

PnL

-$1.61

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$50

Value

$48.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

41%

1964-2771 (4735)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

UAB

Invested

$17.28

Value

$38.08

PnL

+$19.52

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$25.17

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$0.18

Record

74%

6674-2397 (9071)

NatoAlfista<$100

UAB

Invested

$24.3

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

3872-3828 (7700)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.09

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

RLWGCTR<$100

South Florida

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

7902-7934 (15836)

Research grade

NeutralUAB at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UAB

9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UAB wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.