Spread: Oklahoma State (-5.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texas Tech (67%) · Texas Tech at 69¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15

Oklahoma State32¢Texas Tech68¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas Tech

Consensus Traders

Texas Tech 67%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

-$712.17

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 68.5¢

+29% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma State32%

Texas Tech69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma State3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares13,100

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Texas Tech6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,043

Combined PnL+$406.93

Oklahoma State — 33%Texas Tech — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 46.8¢	$5.9K	$4.8K	$-1.1K	59% 1044-726 (1770)
HO HomeRunHazard	Texas Techavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$140.12	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
0xheavy888	Texas Techavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$140	56% 574-455 (1029)
38 38791873984189	Texas Techavg 53.4¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$112.89	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Oklahoma Stateavg 45¢	$234.7	$226.88	-$7.82	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
VeryLucky888	Texas Techavg 53¢	$181.26	$117.37	+$11.86	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Texas Techavg 54¢	$70.74	$70.09	-$0.65	53% 348-313 (661)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texas Techavg 53.5¢	$48.15	$50.85	+$2.7	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Oklahoma Stateavg 41¢	$5.51	$5.85	+$0.34	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

primmCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$5,886.41

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

HomeRunHazard

Texas Tech

Invested

$2,121.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$140.12

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

0xheavy888

Texas Tech

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$140

Record

56%

574-455 (1029)

38791873984189

Texas Tech

Invested

$1,927.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$112.89

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

LightParadoxCTR

Oklahoma State

Invested

$234.7

Value

$226.88

PnL

-$7.82

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

VeryLucky888

Texas Tech

Invested

$181.26

Value

$117.37

PnL

+$11.86

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$70.74

Value

$70.09

PnL

-$0.65

Record

53%

348-313 (661)

Pan9X<$100

Texas Tech

Invested

$48.15

Value

$50.85

PnL

+$2.7

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Oklahoma State

Invested

$5.51

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

NeutralTexas Tech at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas Tech

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.