Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Texas State vs. Boise State: O/U 63.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 48¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 1

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.8K

Combined PnL

-$891.68

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 47.5¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares41,012

Combined PnL-$848.35

Under7 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares20,799

Combined PnL-$43.33

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Overavg 50.6¢	$20.3K	$19.4K	-$843.29	54% 604-521 (1125)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$6.5K	$6.7K	+$168.5	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$153.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.44
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49¢	$6.2K	$6.1K	-$63.36	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$19.61	57% 250-185 (435)
NO Notradecopy	Underavg 49¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$51.02	49% 3932-4120 (8052)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Underavg 49¢	$1,000	$989.79	-$10.2	51% 3941-3845 (7786)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 49¢	$495.88	$490.82	-$5.06	50% 5891-5982 (11873)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 49¢	$32.34	$32.01	-$0.33	54% 3023-2604 (5627)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50¢	$31.5	$30.56	-$0.95	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
2B9S<$100	Underavg 50¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	18% 3817-17278 (21095)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Over

Invested

$20,272.55

Value

$19.4K

PnL

-$843.29

Record

54%

604-521 (1125)

hi774cARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,512.69

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$168.5

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

Both legs:

Under$5,00049¢+$153.06

Over$1,512.6949¢+$15.44

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,204.57

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$63.36

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$1,999.71

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$19.61

Record

57%

250-185 (435)

Notradecopy

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$51.02

Record

49%

3932-4120 (8052)

GamblingAddict12345

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$989.79

PnL

-$10.2

Record

51%

3941-3845 (7786)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$495.88

Value

$490.82

PnL

-$5.06

Record

50%

5891-5982 (11873)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$32.34

Value

$32.01

PnL

-$0.33

Record

54%

3023-2604 (5627)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.5

Value

$30.56

PnL

-$0.95

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

2B9S<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

18%

3817-17278 (21095)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.