Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Boise State, while the market favors Texas State (52%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Boise State (-10.5)
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Boise State (60%) · Boise State at 49¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Boise State
10
Boise State 60%
$12.1K
$90.24
49.1¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralBoise State at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Texas State 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR | Boise Stateavg 49¢ | $9.8K | $9.9K | +$100.5 | 51% 1094-1053 (2147) |
GM gmpm2 | Texas Stateavg 50¢ | $960.39 | $950.78 | -$9.6 | 53% 339-300 (639) |
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR | Boise Stateavg 51¢ | $588.46 | $588.46 | +$0 | 52% 140-131 (271) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Texas Stateavg 49.1¢ | $488.29 | $487.79 | -$0.5 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Boise Stateavg 50¢ | $24.5 | $24.99 | +$0.49 | 50% 7049-7061 (14110) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Boise Stateavg 51¢ | $23.25 | $23.25 | +$0 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR<$100 | Boise Stateavg 48¢ | $19.08 | $19.28 | +$0.2 | 54% 2311-1998 (4309) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Texas Stateavg 50¢ | $17 | $16.66 | -$0.34 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Boise Stateavg 50¢ | $15 | $14.55 | -$0.45 | 50% 5891-5982 (11873) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Texas Stateavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.95 | -$0.05 | 50% 7925-7961 (15886) |
Invested
$9,849
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$100.5
Record
51%
1094-1053 (2147)
Invested
$960.39
Value
$950.78
PnL
-$9.6
Record
53%
339-300 (639)
Invested
$588.46
Value
$588.46
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
140-131 (271)
Invested
$488.29
Value
$487.79
PnL
-$0.5
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Invested
$24.5
Value
$24.99
PnL
+$0.49
Record
50%
7049-7061 (14110)
Invested
$23.25
Value
$23.25
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$19.08
Value
$19.28
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
2311-1998 (4309)
Invested
$17
Value
$16.66
PnL
-$0.34
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
Invested
$15
Value
$14.55
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
5891-5982 (11873)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
7925-7961 (15886)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
BoggsFromShawshank
CTRBoise State — $9.9K
gmpm2
Texas State — $950.78
0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d
CTRBoise State — $588.46
HomeRunHazard
Texas State — $487.79
Forecastication2
CTRBoise State — $24.99
ghorrock
CTRBoise State — $23.25
0x0A77exmm
CTRBoise State — $19.28
LeLynxMalynx
Texas State — $16.66
purplegatto
CTRBoise State — $14.55
RLWG
Texas State — $4.95