Spread: Texas (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Texas (50%) · Texas at 52¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Texas52¢Missouri48¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas

Consensus Traders

Texas 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$24.44

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 51.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texas52%

Missouri49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas4 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,460

Combined PnL+$68.92

Missouri4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,480

Combined PnL-$44.48

Texas — 50%Missouri — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexas 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMissouri 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTexas 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Texas 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Texasavg 51¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$72.31	54% 18472-15543 (34015)
IC ic4creamCTR	Missouriavg 50.9¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$44.5	56% 2788-2199 (4987)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Texasavg 50¢	$733.42	$749.53	+$16.68	51% 38190-37427 (75617)
└ Texas leg	Texasavg 50¢	$402.52	$418.62	+$20.13
└ Missouri leg	Missouriavg 48¢	$330.9	$330.9	-$3.45
nigiri99	Texasavg 52¢	$496.08	$491.31	-$4.77	46% 8764-10458 (19222)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Texasavg 52.7¢	$408.83	$403.03	+$3.88	47% 532-610 (1142)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Texasavg 50.6¢	$1.5K	$290.9	+$40.79	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
└ Texas leg	Texasavg 50.6¢	$168.42	$171.51	+$25.88
└ Missouri leg	Missouriavg 47.6¢	$117.05	$119.38	+$14.9
RollAwayTheDew	Texasavg 52¢	$259.88	$259.88	-$2.5	54% 540-457 (997)
NM NM-PCTR	Missouriavg 48¢	$168	$168	+$0	64% 10178-5715 (15893)
SE sentrioCTR	Missouriavg 48¢	$161.4	$161.4	+$0	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Missouriavg 48.6¢	$16.18	$16.19	+$0.02	58% 21678-15777 (37455)

HomeRunHazard

Texas

Invested

$3,687.81

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$72.31

Record

54%

18472-15543 (34015)

ic4creamCTR

Missouri

Invested

$1,403.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$44.5

Record

56%

2788-2199 (4987)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Texas

Invested

$733.42

Value

$749.53

PnL

+$16.68

Record

51%

38190-37427 (75617)

Both legs:

Texas$402.5250¢+$20.13

Missouri$330.948¢-$3.45

nigiri99

Texas

Invested

$496.08

Value

$491.31

PnL

-$4.77

Record

46%

8764-10458 (19222)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Texas

Invested

$408.83

Value

$403.03

PnL

+$3.88

Record

47%

532-610 (1142)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Texas

Invested

$1,534.78

Value

$290.9

PnL

+$40.79

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

Both legs:

Texas$168.4250.6¢+$25.88

Missouri$117.0547.6¢+$14.9

RollAwayTheDew

Texas

Invested

$259.88

Value

$259.88

PnL

-$2.5

Record

54%

540-457 (997)

NM-PCTR

Missouri

Invested

$168

Value

$168

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10178-5715 (15893)

sentrioCTR

Missouri

Invested

$161.4

Value

$161.4

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Missouri

Invested

$16.18

Value

$16.19

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

Research grade

NeutralTexas at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texas

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

114h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexas 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpMissouri 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTexas 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Texas 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.