Spread: LSU (-5.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold LSU (78%) · LSU at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

LSU64¢Texas36¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LSU

Consensus Traders

LSU 78%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$213.5

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 63.5¢

+32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LSU

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LSU64%

Texas37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LSU7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,179

Combined PnL+$194.24

Texas2 traders

Total Value$536.17

Total Shares915

Combined PnL+$19.26

LSU — 78%Texas — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLSU 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLSU 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	LSUavg 48¢	$379.68	$450.87	+$71.19	49% 389-413 (802)
SN SnakeBall	LSUavg 48¢	$347.21	$412.31	+$65.1	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
0X 0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR	Texasavg 52¢	$322.79	$409.7	+$86.91	5% 7-129 (136)
0X 0x0A77exmm	LSUavg 48¢	$278.4	$330.61	+$52.2	48% 57-62 (119)
38 38791873984189CTR	Texasavg 66¢	$194.12	$126.47	-$67.65	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
NO NotJump<$100	LSUavg 48¢	$22.64	$26.88	+$4.24	51% 970-935 (1905)
RN1<$100	LSUavg 53.6¢	$9.38	$9.97	+$0.59	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
GH ghorrock<$100	LSUavg 48¢	$4.84	$5.75	+$0.91	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	LSUavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.7	+$0	50% 2685-2651 (5336)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

LSU

Invested

$379.68

Value

$450.87

PnL

+$71.19

Record

49%

389-413 (802)

SnakeBall

LSU

Invested

$347.21

Value

$412.31

PnL

+$65.1

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

0x0dae0fd966005cd3eb2e8e9b901f24fca34a72feCTR

Texas

Invested

$322.79

Value

$409.7

PnL

+$86.91

Record

7-129 (136)

0x0A77exmm

LSU

Invested

$278.4

Value

$330.61

PnL

+$52.2

Record

48%

57-62 (119)

38791873984189CTR

Texas

Invested

$194.12

Value

$126.47

PnL

-$67.65

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

NotJump<$100

LSU

Invested

$22.64

Value

$26.88

PnL

+$4.24

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

RN1<$100

LSU

Invested

$9.38

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.59

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

ghorrock<$100

LSU

Invested

$4.84

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.91

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

LSU

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Research grade

NeutralLSU at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

LSU

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on LSU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLSU 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLSU 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000LSU 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LSU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.