Tulane vs. Rice: O/U 49.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 51¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$2.23

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,706

Combined PnL-$16.32

Over2 traders

Total Value$611.97

Total Shares1,236

Combined PnL+$18.54

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52.5¢	$6.2K	$4.5K	-$150.87	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.5¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$165.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$15.02
VeryLucky888	Underavg 52.7¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$5.56	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$14.63	54% 503-422 (925)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 48¢	$532.91	$549.56	+$16.65	36% 975-1701 (2676)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 52¢	$416	$420	+$4	25% 350-1027 (1377)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 52¢	$185.76	$187.43	+$1.66	54% 286-244 (530)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$60.52	$62.41	+$1.89	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
IM imjustkenisghey<$100	Underavg 51¢	$54.46	$56.06	+$1.6	48% 34-37 (71)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53¢	$214.2	$55.13	-$3.27	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 53¢	$50.35	$49.88	-$0.47	64% 1915-1061 (2976)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 52¢	$35.88	$36.23	+$0.34	48% 301-330 (631)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,167.83

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$150.87

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Under$3,119.6852.5¢-$165.89

Over$1,472.4549¢+$15.02

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,771.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$5.56

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$1,566.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$14.63

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$532.91

Value

$549.56

PnL

+$16.65

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$416

Value

$420

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

350-1027 (1377)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$185.76

Value

$187.43

PnL

+$1.66

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.52

Value

$62.41

PnL

+$1.89

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

imjustkenisghey<$100

Under

Invested

$54.46

Value

$56.06

PnL

+$1.6

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$214.2

Value

$55.13

PnL

-$3.27

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$50.35

Value

$49.88

PnL

-$0.47

Record

64%

1915-1061 (2976)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$35.88

Value

$36.23

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.