Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rice, while the market favors Tulane (53%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rice (-3.5)

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rice (100%) · Rice at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Rice48¢Tulane52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rice

Consensus Traders

Rice 100%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$19.36

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralRice at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rice

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Tulane 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rice48%

Tulane53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rice9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,885

Combined PnL+$19.36

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Riceavg 47¢	$470	$475	+$5	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
38 38791873984189CTR	Riceavg 47¢	$468.12	$473.1	+$4.98	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Riceavg 47¢	$219.75	$222.09	+$2.34	37% 957-1658 (2615)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Riceavg 47¢	$94.94	$95.95	+$1.01	48% 286-304 (590)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Riceavg 46.9¢	$32.92	$33.37	+$0.45	36% 928-1642 (2570)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Riceavg 47¢	$23.63	$23.38	-$0.25	37% 966-1630 (2596)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Riceavg 41¢	$15.99	$18.53	+$2.54	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Riceavg 41¢	$14.99	$17.37	+$2.38	32% 99-206 (305)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Riceavg 43.6¢	$10.25	$11.17	+$0.92	52% 1712-1564 (3276)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rice

Invested

$470

Value

$475

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

38791873984189CTR

Rice

Invested

$468.12

Value

$473.1

PnL

+$4.98

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

LightParadoxCTR

Rice

Invested

$219.75

Value

$222.09

PnL

+$2.34

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Rice

Invested

$94.94

Value

$95.95

PnL

+$1.01

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

LimousinCTR<$100

Rice

Invested

$32.92

Value

$33.37

PnL

+$0.45

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Rice

Invested

$23.63

Value

$23.38

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Rice

Invested

$15.99

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$2.54

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

OddstormCTR<$100

Rice

Invested

$14.99

Value

$17.37

PnL

+$2.38

Record

32%

99-206 (305)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Rice

Invested

$10.25

Value

$11.17

PnL

+$0.92

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

Research grade

NeutralRice at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rice

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Tulane 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rice wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.