Tulane vs. Rice

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rice (38%) · Rice at 62¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 14

Tulane39¢Rice61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rice

Consensus Traders

Rice 38%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$9.43

Smart Money Entry

60.2¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRice at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rice

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tulane39%

Rice62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rice3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,130

Combined PnL+$50.43

Tulane5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares5,187

Combined PnL-$59.85

Rice — 38%Tulane — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Rice. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRice 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTulane 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Tulane 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Riceavg 60.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$35.3	51% 568-535 (1103)
38 38791873984189CTR	Tulaneavg 39¢	$737.49	$728.04	-$9.46	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Tulaneavg 40¢	$659.2	$607.91	-$20.49	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Tulaneavg 40¢	$613.2	$590.21	-$23	44% 44-57 (101)
HO HomeRunHazard	Riceavg 58¢	$290	$305	+$15	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Tulaneavg 40¢	$90.8	$87.4	-$3.41	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100	Tulaneavg 43¢	$37.72	$34.21	-$3.51	48% 34-37 (71)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Riceavg 60¢	$7.8	$7.93	+$0.13	54% 286-244 (530)

nigiri99

Rice

Invested

$2,189.16

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$35.3

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

38791873984189CTR

Tulane

Invested

$737.49

Value

$728.04

PnL

-$9.46

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Tulane

Invested

$659.2

Value

$607.91

PnL

-$20.49

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Tulane

Invested

$613.2

Value

$590.21

PnL

-$23

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

HomeRunHazard

Rice

Invested

$290

Value

$305

PnL

+$15

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Tulane

Invested

$90.8

Value

$87.4

PnL

-$3.41

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100

Tulane

Invested

$37.72

Value

$34.21

PnL

-$3.51

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Rice

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Research grade

NeutralRice at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rice

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Rice. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRice 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTulane 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Tulane 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rice wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.