Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Tulane vs. Charlotte: O/U 47.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 49¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
2 arb excluded
$9.8K
-$18.84
49¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$91.28 | 53% 54-47 (101) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$64.28 | 54% 17123-14335 (31458) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 51.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.3K | +$21.98 | 46% 8006-9466 (17472) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51.1¢ | $749.7 | $755.95 | +$6.26 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $566.26 | $572.21 | +$15.73 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51¢ | $510 | $520 | +$10 | 58% 41515-30150 (71665) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $89.8 | $88.07 | -$1.73 | 50% 24907-24598 (49505) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $62.4 | $61.8 | -$0.6 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $31.2 | $31.2 | +$0 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $31.2 | $30.6 | -$0.6 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $10.56 | $10.56 | -$0.11 | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
Invested
$4,478.4
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$91.28
Record
53%
54-47 (101)
Invested
$3,298.58
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$64.28
Record
54%
17123-14335 (31458)
Invested
$1,783.44
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$21.98
Record
46%
8006-9466 (17472)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$510
Value
$520
PnL
+$10
Record
58%
41515-30150 (71665)
Invested
$89.8
Value
$88.07
PnL
-$1.73
Record
50%
24907-24598 (49505)
Invested
$62.4
Value
$61.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Both legs:
Invested
$10.56
Value
$10.56
PnL
-$0.11
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.