Tulane vs. Charlotte: O/U 45.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 89¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.0K
-$109.99
56¢ → 89¢
+59% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Overavg 56¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | -$76 | 53% 54-47 (101) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | +$41.92 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.7¢ | $552 | $560.26 | +$8.26 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44¢ | $435.59 | $450.44 | +$33.66 | |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Underavg 55¢ | $198.55 | $164.26 | -$34.3 | 47% 313-354 (667) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $68.2 | $67.58 | +$0 | 54% 2976-2555 (5531) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $8.98 | $9.29 | +$0.31 | 54% 4865-4090 (8955) |
Invested
$2,837.45
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$76
Record
53%
54-47 (101)
Invested
$1,062.83
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$41.92
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Both legs:
Invested
$198.55
Value
$164.26
PnL
-$34.3
Record
47%
313-354 (667)
Invested
$68.2
Value
$67.58
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2976-2555 (5531)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$0.31
Record
54%
4865-4090 (8955)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.