Spread: Tulane (-8.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Charlotte (25%) · Charlotte at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Charlotte
4
Charlotte 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$7.9
Research grade
NeutralCharlotte at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Charlotteavg 50¢ | $656.46 | $663.02 | +$6.56 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
0X 0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879CTR | Tulaneavg 50¢ | $283.34 | $280.51 | -$2.83 | 39% 56-87 (143) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Tulaneavg 52.5¢ | $203.9 | $192.27 | -$11.63 | 50% 1184-1181 (2365) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Charlotteavg 50¢ | $86.57 | $87.44 | +$0.87 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
| └ Charlotte leg | Charlotteavg 50¢ | $57.5 | $58.08 | +$0.58 | |
| └ Tulane leg | Tulaneavg 49¢ | $29.07 | $29.37 | +$0.3 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Tulaneavg 49.5¢ | $59.07 | $59.07 | +$0 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$656.46
Value
$663.02
PnL
+$6.56
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$283.34
Value
$280.51
PnL
-$2.83
Record
39%
56-87 (143)
Invested
$203.9
Value
$192.27
PnL
-$11.63
Record
50%
1184-1181 (2365)
Invested
$86.57
Value
$87.44
PnL
+$0.87
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.07
Value
$59.07
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.