Spread: Tulane (-7.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Tulane (80%) · Tulane at 51¢ · $65K held · ended Oct 30

Tulane51¢Charlotte49¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tulane

Consensus Traders

Tulane 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.1K

Combined PnL

$927.56

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 51¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralTulane at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tulane

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tulane51%

Charlotte49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tulane8 traders

Total Value$62.4K

Total Shares122,463

Combined PnL+$901.98

Charlotte2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,171

Combined PnL+$25.58

Tulane — 80%Charlotte — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Tulane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTulane 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTulane 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTulane 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tulane 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Tulaneavg 50¢	$50.0K	$51.0K	+$1.0K	51% 166-160 (326)
BR BrotherObama	Tulaneavg 51¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$98.04	41% 247-354 (601)
RN1CTR	Charlotteavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$25.58	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
UP UpTheBlues	Tulaneavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
TimeTraveler	Tulaneavg 51¢	$127.5	$127.5	+$0	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Charlotteavg 49¢	$801.25	$116.42	+$15.17	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
└ Charlotte leg	Charlotteavg 49¢	$65.56	$64.92	+$13.67
└ Tulane leg	Tulaneavg 50¢	$50	$51.5	+$1.5
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Charlotteavg 48.6¢	$74.27	$75.25	+$0.98	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
└ Charlotte leg	Charlotteavg 48.6¢	$42.77	$43.12	+$0.35
└ Tulane leg	Tulaneavg 50¢	$31.5	$32.13	+$0.63
GH ghorrock<$100	Tulaneavg 50.4¢	$59.35	$59.94	+$0.59	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Tulaneavg 50¢	$54	$53.46	-$0.54	50% 6977-6973 (13950)
noosh3<$100	Tulaneavg 52¢	$40	$39.23	-$0.38	53% 268-242 (510)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Charlotteavg 49¢	$26.95	$26.95	+$0	50% 3806-3765 (7571)
RL RLWG<$100	Tulaneavg 50¢	$17.5	$17.85	+$0.35	50% 7862-7894 (15756)

justwins

Tulane

Invested

$50,000

Value

$51.0K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

166-160 (326)

BrotherObama

Tulane

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$98.04

Record

41%

247-354 (601)

RN1CTR

Charlotte

Invested

$2,506.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25.58

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

UpTheBlues

Tulane

Invested

$1,170.45

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

TimeTraveler

Tulane

Invested

$127.5

Value

$127.5

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$801.25

Value

$116.42

PnL

+$15.17

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Both legs:

Charlotte$65.5649¢+$13.67

Tulane$5050¢+$1.5

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$74.27

Value

$75.25

PnL

+$0.98

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

Both legs:

Charlotte$42.7748.6¢+$0.35

Tulane$31.550¢+$0.63

ghorrock<$100

Tulane

Invested

$59.35

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$0.59

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

Forecastication2<$100

Tulane

Invested

$54

Value

$53.46

PnL

-$0.54

Record

50%

6977-6973 (13950)

noosh3<$100

Tulane

Invested

$40

Value

$39.23

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

268-242 (510)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$26.95

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3806-3765 (7571)

RLWG<$100

Tulane

Invested

$17.5

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

7862-7894 (15756)

Research grade

NeutralTulane at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tulane

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Tulane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTulane 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTulane 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTulane 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Tulane 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tulane wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.