Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Tulane, while the market favors Charlotte (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Tulane (-10.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tulane (40%) · Tulane at 47¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Tulane
5
Tulane 40%
$6.7K
$28.08
46.6¢ → 46.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTulane at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Charlotte 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Tulaneavg 46.6¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$139.88 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Charlotteavg 53¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$54.12 | 54% 16879-14148 (31027) |
HI hi774c | Charlotteavg 54¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$55.56 | 52% 4656-4367 (9023) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Charlotteavg 54¢ | $45.36 | $43.26 | -$2.1 | 54% 2922-2511 (5433) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Tulaneavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.43 | -$0.03 | 49% 18637-19066 (37703) |
Invested
$3,443.17
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$139.88
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
Invested
$1,946.57
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$54.12
Record
54%
16879-14148 (31027)
Invested
$1,200
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$55.56
Record
52%
4656-4367 (9023)
Invested
$45.36
Value
$43.26
PnL
-$2.1
Record
54%
2922-2511 (5433)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.43
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
18637-19066 (37703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.