Tulane vs. Charlotte
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Tulane (50%) · Tulane at 75¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Tulane
6
Tulane 50%
$3.3K
-$32.14
76¢ → 74.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTulane at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4cream | Tulaneavg 76¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$15.05 | 59% 2630-1846 (4476) |
TO tomb2456CTR | Charlotteavg 25¢ | $750 | $735 | -$15 | 51% 290-282 (572) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Charlotteavg 25¢ | $240 | $235.2 | -$4.8 | 50% 6970-6970 (13940) |
 VeryLucky888 | Tulaneavg 75¢ | $100.52 | $28.16 | +$2.54 | 58% 41528-30164 (71692) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Tulaneavg 75¢ | $17.25 | $17.37 | +$0.11 | 58% 28432-20995 (49427) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Charlotteavg 23¢ | $0.9 | $0.95 | +$0.06 | 57% 13657-10450 (24107) |
Invested
$2,287.6
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$15.05
Record
59%
2630-1846 (4476)
Invested
$750
Value
$735
PnL
-$15
Record
51%
290-282 (572)
Invested
$240
Value
$235.2
PnL
-$4.8
Record
50%
6970-6970 (13940)
VeryLucky888Invested
$100.52
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$2.54
Record
58%
41528-30164 (71692)
Invested
$17.25
Value
$17.37
PnL
+$0.11
Record
58%
28432-20995 (49427)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.95
PnL
+$0.06
Record
57%
13657-10450 (24107)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.